In the first two parts of this blog, we discussed a theoretical approach to measure the impact of a batting innings in a one day international game. In this final part of the blog, we look at applying this to a recently concluded World Cup game between England and India to see if this analysis holds up in the real world.
In the match played in Birmingham on June 30th, England outplayed India to keep their World Cup campaign alive. We saw some great batting performances from both teams and some batting performances which were critically dissected by the media and cricketing fans all over the world.
Taking all the emotion out of the debate, let us examine what the data tells us. We look at 4 English batsmen – Roy, Bairstow, Root and Stokes – and 5 Indian batsmen – Sharma, Kohli, Pant, Pandya and Dhoni as they all made a contribution with the bat
Applying the logic of the hypothesis we have been exploring, the England innings looks like this:
The narrative behind this data suggests that although he top scored, Bairstow’s innings was largely of neutral impact – in other words, he did what was expected of him, nothing less, nothing more. Root played a typical anchor role, but should have gone on to score big and didn’t. He did not live up to potential. Roy countered Root’s negative impact with an outstanding innings at the top of the order, and this was more meaningful because he was returning after injury. But the true story of the innings was the magnificent knock played by Stokes. His 79 felt more like 127 and was significantly the highest impact contribution in England’s innings. As a result, England posted an imposing total which felt like more than it actually was. I’m sure there aren’t many people who would argue against this narrative.
When it comes to India’s turn, here is what the data reveals:
Looking at this table, you can immediately notice the lack of impact at the top of the innings. Sharma and Kohli struggled to make an impression, and their stumbling attempt at kick starting the chase was clear to anyone watching them bat in the initial overs. Kohli perished before he could capitalise, as did Rohit, and had he survived into the last 10 overs, he could have inflicted some serious damage, as we have known him to do. Pant looked like he was playing with intent, but the data reveals that his innings had marginally less impact than Dhoni, who was widely criticised for his perceived unwillingness to chase down the target. Pandya had the most positive impact in the chase, although he should have matched Stokes’ impact if India were to win the game. Effectively, the Indian batsmen cancelled out each other’s impact, and the data reveals that in fact, they should have finished on a lower score than what they finally achieved.
For argument’s sake, had Pandya played to the end of the innings, and scored an additional 30 runs in maybe 15 more balls, his impact would have been +54 and India would have most probably beaten England.
In conclusion, the cold hard data reveals that on the day, England proved to be worthy victors, regardless of what the emotional fans want to believe. Thankfully for India, they may have another chance to challenge the English in the next few days.