I had written a three part blog during the 2019 World Cup about using data to evaluate the impact of an ODI innings. The gist of the theory was that it is possible to analyse the data to determine the impact of a batsman’s innings in a limited over game where the tempo of run making constantly changes through the 50 overs. Even if a batsman gets a significant score, a slower tempo may reduce the impact of that particular innings. If you missed it, or wish to refresh your memory on the theory, here are the links:

Part 1 , Part 2 and Part 3

Now that the two teams I was analysing are playing again in a bi-lateral ODI series, I thought it would be interesting to re-evaluate the theory and see if the data matches the analysis of the performances in the 1st match of the series.

Batting first, the hosts India managed to post a competitive total batting first using their tried and tested formula of starting slow, consolidating in the middle and exploding at the end. And boy, did they explode in the end, largely thanks to an outstanding debut knock by the older of the Pandya brothers.

In recent years, England have been quite successful in their approach of starting in high gear, and continuing at the same tempo through the innings. There are a number of high impact batsmen in the current squad, so this approach seems sensible. For the first 15 overs of the chase, England was so far ahead of the required rate that they were making a mockery of the chase. Then the wheels started coming off, and without an experienced consolidator like Root in the team to see them through, they fell disappointingly short.

So what does the data tell us?

There was one standout impact performance by debutant Krunal Pandya (but we knew that) but even without that innings, the numbers suggest that India would still have posted a 300 + score. Based on the tempo of the entire innings, they could not have posted a score much larger than 320, so the 317 they did end up with was probably a par score. Not a lot of revelations then, but in compiling this, I did realise a shortcoming in the theory. But we’ll come to this later.

The numbers for the England innings are also not unexpected.

Both the opening batsmen played out of their skins to kick off the chase in style, so it is no surprise that the impact of their innings stands up in the analysis. Bairstow’s innings in particular was outstanding and suggests it was worth 140 runs in the context of this match.

The key factor however is the wasted 47 balls at the end of the innings. which should have resulted in a projected 74 runs more. Because of the incredible high impact innings at the top of the innings, the numbers suggest that England could very well have wrapped up the chase inside 45 overs. At the very least, it offered them an option to accumulate during the middle overs. This is where Root would have shaped the chase perfectly, and where the rest of the batsmen let the team down. The overall impact index of +40 suggests that the eventual margin of defeat should have been lower than it was.

Back to the potential flaw in the theory. The numbers for Hardik Pandya and Stokes are both misleading. They both perished with low scores after hanging around for a number of deliveries. Their adjusted scores cannot fall below zero, but it feels like the impact index of their innings in the context of the game should have been lower than the -1 calculated here, especially given the crucial nature of their roles in their respective teams. This probably requires some additional factor to be considered.

Maybe, it is time to look at the bowlers’ impacts on similar principles next.